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At the end of November, NVIDIA put out an internal memo (that was leaked to Barron's reporter
I stopped reading there.
Yeah, Nvidia is up to some shady, circular cash flow, literally criminal financing. They’re all in on AI Bro.
But this blogger is totally ignorant of what they’ve been up to the past decade. They’re still a graphics company. They have huge gaming and workstation markets; hell, almost a monopoly in them.
And they’ve been pushing virtual spaces for a long time. Stuff like industrial robotics, synthetic data generation before AI got popular, simulation, all sorts of things. If every single LLM disappeared tomorrow, and their financing scheme implodes, Nvidia would be just fine, and carry on as usual.
And while I’m ranting, they’re wrong about CUDA too. It’s a monopoly for the research space, but absolutely not for production inference/training. If you want proof, see one example of many: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.04519
As well as the massive NPU-trained MoEs on huggingface now.
“AI” is already moving off of Nvidia, but the cutting edge of whatever is en vogue next will still be on Nvidia. I don’t know if that’s bullish or bearish, and I don’t really care.
AI is now 90% of Nvidia revenue: https://incomeshares.com/en-eu/insights/nvidia-revenue-change-since-2020
If 90% of Nvidia revenue were to suddenly disappear, it wouldn’t matter that they used to be the leading maker of gaming hardware — they’d be completely radioactive to investors for the rest of time and their stock would drop to zero. All of their top talent flees to AMD or wherever, and Nvidia becomes a mere footnote in the history of corporate American hubris.
I disagree.
I remember when AMD stock was $2 a share, not that long ago. I bought it at $8. They were basically dead to investors, and unlike Nvidia, they had very little market share in anything or hope of crawling out. But the company itself was still operating.
Even if AI disappears in a puff of smoke, even with their risky “vibe revenue” financing, Nvidia is in a far stronger position than that. They have cash, they aren’t under a pile of debt, and they have tons of diverse non-AI revenue, including oldschool HPC datacenters.
In other words, the stock market is not the real world.