Anyone can dispute a proposed market resolution if they feel it was proposed in error. Once a market is proposed for resolution it goes into a challenge period of 2 hours. If no one challenges the proposal the resolution is deemed valid and the proposer receives their bond back plus the reward. During the 2-hour challenge period, anyone may dispute the proposal on the UMA dapp by posting a challenge bond of the same amount as the proposer bond (usually $750). This begins the debate period of 24-48 hours (votes happen every other day and there will always be at least 24 hours for discussion). Anyone wishing to contribute evidence to the discussion can do so in the Uma Discord server in the #evidence-rationale and #voting-discussion channels. After the debate period, Uma token holders vote (this process takes approximately 48 hours)
I also read that there’s some rule chaneges (on what is considered yes/no) by polymark on some bets and general complaints, don’t know if those are just sore losers or valid but I’d read up on that if you want to bet on the platform, I’ve never used the service.
If you offer enough odds, someone would take it just to make you shit your pants and prove it. A one penny bet with $10,000 payout? Maybe you forget about it and come 2026 some idiot takes you for a wad-o-cash.
eh, when there’s large discrepancies it’s more so about making $ on the swings up until the event passes. it’s called arbitrage, it’s not gambling if you know the actual likely result…then it’s just mathing out the risk/reward and win/loss ratios
How does one bet on random things like this. What’s the website? I have a few predictions of my own…
It seems to be this site: https://polymarket.com/
How does this work?
Who verifies, that a bet is done and which statement was correct?
https://docs.polymarket.com/polymarket-learn/markets/how-are-markets-resolved
https://docs.polymarket.com/polymarket-learn/markets/dispute
I… what? And they’re using Discord to discuss stuff? Sounds legit
Oh God, it’s even more idiotic than I could have possibly imagined.
Its even worse than that
https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/polymarket-reports-unprecedented-governance-attack-by-uma-whale-on-bet-resolution
The whales can manipulate the bets and make themselves win even if it doesn’t happen.
I love crypto, but this shit is a pure scam.
Thank you very much for the explanation!
Although I find 2h a bit short, especially for small betting pools, where there is a high chance that mostly people sleep, work or do something else
I also read that there’s some rule chaneges (on what is considered yes/no) by polymark on some bets and general complaints, don’t know if those are just sore losers or valid but I’d read up on that if you want to bet on the platform, I’ve never used the service.
So, I can bet on whether I’m gonna shit my pants this year? Great way to lift my spirits if I were to shit my pants.
You’d have to convince enough people that you aren’t going to shit your pants first “@fartographer@lemmy.world”
Hey y’all. It’s been a while since I’ve shit my pants. And I really think I can make it a full year this time!
If you offer enough odds, someone would take it just to make you shit your pants and prove it. A one penny bet with $10,000 payout? Maybe you forget about it and come 2026 some idiot takes you for a wad-o-cash.
I’m not 100% sure that I follow what you’re saying, but it sounds like you’re calling me an idiot who is gonna win $10,000??? This is so exciting!
I’m wondering the same thing as well, seems very risky
So goodbye to your money for me
There’s some bets I wouldn’t mind losing.
Hate to have to break it to you, but placing bets doesn’t alter the outcome.
When the total amount wagered is large relative to the event, it creates an incentive for people to do things about it.
Is that what you’re going to do?
By myself? Too poor.
eh, when there’s large discrepancies it’s more so about making $ on the swings up until the event passes. it’s called arbitrage, it’s not gambling if you know the actual likely result…then it’s just mathing out the risk/reward and win/loss ratios
Kalshi is the other big one