I think as a foreigner it is a little easy to miss how significant this is. The timeline of the war bleeds together and people who don’t live in Ukraine can easily forget that Crimea was taken a long time ago… all the way back in 2014.
Ukrainian military commanders being able to say this confidently isn’t just a sign that the meager territorial gains russia has obtained since the start of the 3 Day Special Military Operation might all vanish in what seems like a snap of a finger compared to the lives and time it took for russia to gain them… it is a sign that Ukraine is uprooting the entire apparatus of russian power in the region that has had more than a decade to gain a foothold.
It is important to understand that for the average russian Crimea is far more relevant than basically any other territory taken from Ukraine from what I understand, it is a tourist destination spot that is also useful for its coastline and maritime access it provides, the fact that Ukraine can credibly say it will in the near future cut off Crimea is one of immense historical significance. It means this is the beginning of the end for russia, an end that might not actually be that long if russia doesn’t come to the table with a realistic peace offer soon. Once air defenses systematically collapse there is no way to sustain a war machine capable of a large general offensive…
In the realm of “hearts and minds” russia losing Crimea after it had posessed it for over a decade from a conflict russia chose to begin is a major blow to the war effort and its general cultural support even if people are unable to discuss it too publicly.
I promise the only way this doesn’t happen is if russia maneuvers politically to make it impossible or if russia offers an attractive peace deal in a rush to keep Crimea from falling back into Ukraine’s hands and Ukraine agrees to it.
Ukraine dismantled russia’s artillery backbone, and then dismantled its air defense backbone, with those gone there is simply no way for russia to exert control over territory. Any place they concentrate military and industrial power to exert control they become a target for Ukrainian strikes from the air.
The impotency of airpower is being vastly oversold right now because of global politics, people keep trying to convince other people that airpower can exert control over territory, it cannot. It can however thoroughly dismantle a war machine to the point that it is a helpless smoking heap of scrap which is exactly what Ukraine is doing at a blistering clip.
I guess it’s all a question of how thoroughly Ukraine can cut off supplies to eastern Kherson and if they’re able to cross the river (or push south in Zaporizhzhia, but that seems less likely given the fortifications)
If they can manage that and cut off the land bridge then Crimea is probably a foregone conclusion, similar to western Kherson years ago.
But cutting off the land bridge seems like a big IF.
Seems like when they’ve projected moves like this before it’s been a distraction as they do something else. But maybe this is a double reverse fake!
Ukraine has chased russia out of the sea, how can Crimea be defended at a strategic level by russia now?
It requires naval power which russia is currently hemorrhaging.
Don’t forget Turkey occupies a good 90 degrees of rotation about a central point in Crimea, in the realm of electronic warfare this is where the beachhead is, the weakest exposed salient by far.
Russia can have zero confidence about what lurks in the Black Sea to the south and multiple nations fly surveillance, electronic warfare and other intelligence gathering aircraft (manned and unmanned) along that 90 degree arc.
Don’t get me wrong. I hope you’re right. But doesn’t that vulnerability also then apply to Ukraine if they take Crimea?
Just look at the geography yourself, you can see that possessing Crimea does not significantly increase Ukraine’s exposure in terms of how many degrees of rotation about a point on Ukraine’s coastline to unknown Electronics Warfare and Signals Intelligence assets Ukraine is vulnerable to looking south.
For russia however, what was before a large continental expanse approaching a sea from a restricted set of angles is now essentially a problem of protecting a island with a huge degree of unknowables surrounding it.
Also Ukraine doesn’t have nearly as many enemies as russia does…