Good share. I use this all the time. It should, however, be noted a very conservative estimate not sufficiently taken into account underdevlopment causing death; it’s essentially calculating excess deaths with the presumption that the country would not develop further.

As a thought experiment, consider a wealthy western country and then:

(1) suddenly take its wealth so it suddenly reaches a gdp /capita of say Congo or Sierra Leone (this realistically would mean a large loss of technology, infrastructure, public sector, and wealth extracted from the global south)

(2) then impose sanctions

If we only consider the baseline for excess deaths after number (1) is applied but not include (1) we are probably missing a large chunk of death in said country.