Summary
President-elect Donald Trump and his incoming administration are debating the extent of potential U.S. military action against Mexican drug cartels.
Options discussed include targeted airstrikes, cyberattacks, covert operations, and “soft invasions” using special forces. Trump has warned Mexico to curb fentanyl trafficking or face military intervention.
His key appointees, such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, support some form of military action, framing cartels as terrorist threats.
Critics fear this could escalate tensions with Mexico and spark significant international controversy.
To be fair, the unofficial word has always been that our guys are doing a little more than what a civilian would consider training when they go on joint training missions in Central and South America. They aren’t officially supposed to take part in any fighting but it’s common knowledge that part of the faith in a partnership and the skills host forces have been taught is for the special forces guys training them to go on a few missions with them.
The reputation from those operations is a large part of why cartels don’t want to bother feds or tourists anymore. They know if they end up on Uncle Sam’s list then no amount of sovereignty is going to stop tier 1 forces from coming for them. Even if it has to be the CIA’s Special Activities Group. (The guys who actually do “if you get caught, we don’t know you” types of missions)
This is a large part of why a Cartel apologized for shooting tourists and handed over 5 members in 2023. They did not want to be on that list.
Now before anyone comes in here and says Trump’s plan is no big deal, the entire calculus of this situation changes when the cartel leaders become indiscriminate targets. The status quo right now is a bit like old Chicago’s legends, only Americans “in the game” are fair targets. We turn our heads and in return the cartels leave most Americans alone. That changes the second they go into self defense mode. They’re going to take hostages, they’re going to blow shit up in border communities, they’re going make it as painful as possible.
In short, this is a great way to create an insurgency in the US South West.
If the cartels start openly fighting back on U.S. soil, this administration will immediately change the rules of engagement to shooting anybody who physically approaches the U.S. border overnight. I’m talking literally within hours. This is exactly what they want. They are looking for any excuse they can use to leverage support from border states in deploying automated defense systems.
There is no scenario where the cartels engaging in insurgency on U.S. soil does not result in immediate shock and awe military tactics in response. There will be no more consideration for civilian deaths. Anybody within shooting distance of the border will be designated as an enemy combatant. That’s what will happen. Make no mistake about it.
I have no doubt it would be used to escalate things further. But I must say, that wouldn’t matter. All the tech and loose ROEs in the world cannot kill an idea.
I’m not entirely sure what you mean by this? It seems to me like you are saying that cartels are somehow engaged in an ideological war, and I don’t really see any evidence of that. Can you elaborate further?
They are characterized as religious organizations but they operate in many ways like the Mob. It’s a lifestyle and a shadow government and a religion. They originate from Mexico’s civil war in the early 1900s. So they are as much an institution as the government itself.