The cumulative signs are not good. A week after Hamas positively replied to the mediators’ proposal for a partial hostage deal in preparation for a full deal that would end the war, Israel continues to waste time.
This is happening despite the clear reports about the desperate condition of the twenty hostages who are still held in the Gaza Strip’s tunnels, along with the bodies of 30 held by Hamas. There are reports about intentions to resume the talks, this time at a different site.
No one seems to be in a hurry — at least not on this issue.
The preparations for the military operation to take control of Gaza City are proceeding normally, and U.S. President Donald Trump continues to fully support Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
On Friday, Trump speculated about the deaths of several hostages. Israel vehemently denies this. The claim that the military operation will also succeed in defeating Hamas and magically force it to give up at the last minute and return the hostages alive does not align with everything we have seen so far. Military pressure has value, but Hamas has never entirely given up.
Anyone insisting otherwise is reminiscent of the White Queen from “Alice in Wonderland,” who trains herself to believe in at least six impossible things before breakfast.
Netanyahu, meanwhile, is displeased with the drab name [that] the IDF deliberately chose for the operation, Gideon’s Chariots II. The prime minister reportedly prefers “Iron Fist”, despite, or perhaps because, of its fascist connotations.
In the television news studios, reservist officers are fighting over the credit for the operation’s planning, which has not yet actually started, even though its predecessor produced limited results.
Conversely, the entire international community — except the Americans — has condemned Israel’s intentions, and legal experts warn that leveling Gaza City exposes the participants in the operation to personal legal risk worldwide. That doesn’t bother Defense Minister Israel Katz, another man urgently seeking a place on the front bench at the court in The Hague, who says that, after the operation, Gaza City will look like Beit Hanoun — a city already totally destroyed.
The military preparations are underway, but not at a pace that pleases the ministers. Israeli news outlet Channel 12 reported that Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich excoriated IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir at a cabinet meeting when the latter dared to say that the IDF cannot estimate how much time it would need to forcibly evacuate the population from Gaza City.
We’re talking about a million people, and the IDF estimates that 30 percent will refuse evacuation under any scenario, at least before the army enters. But Smotrich already reprimanded Zamir, “We instructed you to take quick action. For my part, you will surround them. Whoever does not evacuate, do not give them water or electricity. Let them starve to death or surrender. That is what we want — and you can do it.”
We should speak clearly: Smotrich is urging the army to commit war crimes — and Netanyahu remains silent.
Tens of thousands of Order 8 call-up notices have been issued to reservists dated September 2 and later, to create at least the illusion that the school year will open on schedule. Some reservist brigades optimistically report that about 70 percent of reservists will report for duty; others hope for 50 percent. In any event, the adjutant’s tricks are already known: the report-for-duty calculations do not include many soldiers who have notified their commanders that they won’t report.
They are relying on supplements: some battalions roughly the size of the units themselves. These “attached” reservists, who have been moving from unit to unit for almost two years, have abandoned their previous civilian lives in favor of the war. The reasons vary: ideological solidarity with the war’s objectives, an alternative livelihood in lieu of lost civilian jobs, and those still emotionally stuck on October 7 — unable to let go (understandably).
The condition of the armored vehicles is as bad as that of the soldiers. Ordinance teams are forced to improvise solutions in the field and limit the tanks and APCs’ travel time so that vehicles can still be used after 22 months of continuous combat. A new problem has emerged: Germany’s arms embargo could affect the replacement of Merkava tank engines. This means some tanks are out of commission, and the military’s ability to operate in Gaza could take a hit.
Zamir’s hesitations also relate to fear for the hostages’ lives. IDF has only partial intelligence, making it challenging to track Hamas preparations and the hostages’ locations amid the immense chaos in Gaza. Zamir has no intention of jeopardizing the hostages and has taken extreme care in moving forces forward.
Another consideration is a wish to limit casualties among the soldiers. New cautionary measures have recently been taken when patrolling buildings, which appear to have helped, based on lessons learned from previous incidents.
The government’s pressure on the army to produce results — and attempts to push it to problematic actions in a densely crowded population — have heightened tensions within the IDF.
Particular attention should be paid to what will happen between the Southern Command and the Air Force, given previous disagreements and the Air Force’s concern of being portrayed as not providing enough assistance to ground fighters.
If the army is fighting back against political pressures in Gaza, that is not the case in the West Bank.
There, Smotrich has chalked up a near-total victory, with Netanyahu, Katz, and even Zamir watching from the sidelines. Last week, the finance minister (and second minister in the Defense Ministry) approved construction plans for the E1 area east of Jerusalem, proudly saying that it’s “another nail in the coffin of a Palestinian state.”
The problem is that the army has adopted that language. Forces are not only ignoring systematic settler violence in Palestinian villages — they are now undertaking new punitive measures. Last week, a Palestinian fired at Israeli civilians near the Adi-Ad outpost, lightly wounding one. In response, the IDF uprooted 3,100 olive trees in the nearby village of Al Mughayyir.
Central Command Commander Maj. Gen. Avi Bluth is quoted as saying, “Every village should know that if they commit an attack, they will pay a heavy price and will be under curfew and surrounded.”
“Uprooting the trees,” he said, “was intended to deter everyone. Not just this village, but any village that tries to raise a hand against the residents [the Jews],”
This is Smotrich’s language — and it is now being heard from the most senior IDF officer in the West Bank.
These actions, against the backdrop of preparations for a devastating attack on Gaza City, promise a tsunami of international criticism of Israel.
They are taking place just before the U.N. General Assembly’s annual meeting in late September.
In general, September is shaping up as a tense and stormy month. A confrontation appears to be approaching in Lebanon between the government and army and Hezbollah, which refuses to disarm. Iran continues to clash with the West over violations of the nuclear agreement and the sanctions it may face, against the backdrop of the Israeli-American strike on its nuclear sites last June.
On Sunday, the Israeli Air Force attacked the capital of Yemen as part of an ongoing exchange of blows with the Houthis. The novelty from the weekend, the Houthis’ firing of a cluster missile, is likely to increase the nervousness of foreign airlines in light of the ongoing firing at Ben Gurion Airport.
In the Palestinian theater, however, only a hostage deal can stop the downward spiral.

