Someone turned 80k into like 1.2 million betting on Tesla calls or something and hedged with a Kamala win bet it was like 50k tesla/30k Kamala and they turned it into 1.2 million via Tesla somehow
Is it like
- bet 1/2 on unlikely thing
- bet 1/2 on likely thing
- rely on gains on either side averaging out to at least ++
From my perspective you can’t bet both sides and still expect gains on average. Sure you can be lucky that the one bet wins more than the other loses but typically that doesn’t work if you bet on two opposite outcomes. There are no magical and safe ways to multiply money other than maybe being super rich and already too big to fail.
So how does hedging prevail at the instititional level it does or it seems like it does as a viable tool in the investing toolkit? Does it consequently hard require insider info and basically its just investing uncertainty theatre?
https://www.investopedia.com/trading/hedging-beginners-guide/
More like bet 80% on a likely thing and 20% on a disaster.
Thats more like the gambling we all know and love
Can we learn to estimate these odds on sight like that?
It’s not so much about estimating odds as it is limiting the potential downside. Hedging is the rational part of things lol
Can you give me a really classic and rational/prototypical example or hedging? Like is it be stretegically cynical/ Thinking in Bets?