

When either the Kiev regime or the Ukrainian armed forces collapse the Russians can occupy as much of Ukraine as they want.
How will that happen, an invasion of the whole territory seem possible to you ?
It seems to me that Ukraine cannot progress further, and Russia either can’t or refuses to in regard to the costs(, not that it’s bidding its time).
I think it’ll end up with a negotiation as said previously(, i.e. Ukraine in the e.u., but demilitarized and not in the n.a.t.o., with the risks it entails), i’m curious to know if you’d attempt a more precise prediction for this year.
That would signal to the population of those regions, who are now officially Russian citizens, that Russia is not serious about protecting them, that Russia lied about viewing them as an integral part of the Russian nation, and instead sees them as a bargaining chip that can be given away as a “concession”.
I don’t agree, these populations rejected a certain kind of Ukraine, so may like to be given another choice in regard to another kind of Ukraine, and as stated it would weight in the negotiations without costing much, among other advantages.
But w/e, i get your point, no need to discuss it further i think.


















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How though ?
You’re excluding a russian occupation of Ukraine, so have you something else in mind to make it happen ?
I know that i didn’t went far enough when searching for something that would please both sides in my first comment(, and even less in the subsequent ones), but if it’s not through strength then it’ll be through mutual concessions, i think.
And as said/implied earlier, using strength won’t make ukrainians like Russia, while mutual concessions may inverse their western shift.
Anyway, i don’t know the perfect solution to each conflict, but what should distinguish us from the past is to avoid situations such as “the winner takes all”, in the case of Israel there should be a two-states solution eventually leading to a single state with a brotherly unity between israeli jews and arabic muslims, in the case of Venezuela they should have a control of their oil, and if they choose to accept foreign companies then it shouldn’t be the current decades-long robbery but stops e.g. at a 20% ROI, we should allow socialist/islamic/… states and other differences, and in every case we should treat others as we would like to be treated, which is obviously a laughable notion in international politics where strength(&‘narrative management’) rules supreme, a conclusion which leads to the necessity of establishing solutions such as an international army and tribunal, for example.
Or we could just continue to fight between each other so that we’re on the good side of an unfair situation that only one side agrees to.
I don’t know if it’s true, but Russia often said that Ukraine can choose any side it wants as long as it doesn’t endanger Russia, closing a path to n.a.t.o. but leaving them to choose the e.u… Seems reasonable if they stay demilitarized, but it’d mean joining the e.u. over keeping their south-eastern territories, which shouldn’t be considered worth it i.m.o.
avoidance