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Cake day: July 11th, 2023

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  • There’s only one solution to time travel paradoxes that resolves all of them, makes some kind of sense, and doesn’t require generating an infinite number of additional versions of the universe - single coherent timeline. The universe as it is now is the sum total result of all time travel that will ever have happened to a point in time before the present. You can’t go back in time and kill Hitler because you didn’t, which means any attempt you might have made to do so clearly failed. Likewise for the grandfather paradox, if you go back in time to kill your grandfather, you already failed in your mission.

    Awful views aside, one of the things I gave JKR credit for was doing a decent job of adopting this model of time travel in Prisoner of Azkaban. Then she threw that out the window for Cursed Child because she’s terrible at any kind of world building consistency.


  • I mean I’d rather Trump live long enough to be convicted, imprisoned (ideally by having alligator Alcatraz repurposed as a prison for convicted former presidents), have his name stripped off everything he’s put it on in disgust, and have even MAGA reject him before he finally goes the way of all men in some suitably painful medical fashion. But that seems unlikely to occur.

    Next Dem POTUS does need to use every power and immunity granted by SCOTUS to it’s fullest before being a sacrificial lamb and getting impeached, then passing laws to prevent thta from ever happening again. Anything important that is held together by “norms” or by “no one would do that” needs to be codified into law explicitly.


  • No, it is not, and it’s revolting to me that you’d think that. More than 3000 suits were filed in 1 year under the Adult Survivors Act, are all those “happy little accidents”, or do those people mean nothing and you only care about that one case?

    Do you think the same identical law would have been passed if Carroll had never accused Trump? Lots of other people benefited, that is to be sure, but the specifics of when the law was passed and exactly what it did were entirely about creating a legal ability for Carroll to sue Trump that could reasonably be resolved before the election.

    For example, the ASA discards statutes of limitations entirely for the window, rather than applying the new limit to old cases, because if it had only allowed applying the 20 year limit to old cases then Carroll’s case would have been outside the scope even when she first made the accusation publicly. Out of the 3000 cases, I wonder how many involved conduct that happened prior to 2002?

    This was not retroactive, however, so the ASA was passed to allow alleged victims to bring up their cases.

    It wasn’t retroactive because several state courts have found that changing a statute of limitations retroactively to apply to cases that were already outside the previous statute of limitations is an unconstitutional ex post facto law. If the statute of limitations is 3 years and you change it to 20, it cannot apply to any case already more than three years old without opening yourself up to another suit like Stogner v. California. The notion is pretty basic - you generally can’t create a law that puts someone in jeopardy who was not already potentially in jeopardy for that conduct.

    This is why the ASA is a separate law and why it only opened a temporary and narrow window for such cases. Such “revival” laws tend to do better in state supreme courts than a full retroactive extension of statutes of limitations.


  • He actually offered to do so, but it was as a part of his single most common legal tactic - delaying. Basically he waited until it was functionally too late, then offered a sample if and only if the pages of the DNA report from the dress that had been held from his lawyers were provided in exchange. The judge refused to let this happen, because it would be opening a new line of inquiry set to make the case take even longer (which was the point).

    Had the judge allowed Trump to submit the sample, and had he been allowed to continue to drag every step of that process out to the last minute (which is his standard MO in legal disputes) the election would have happened before the case was resolved and much like him being sentenced to “never mind, we good bro” for his 34 felony convictions this would have been derailed and dismissed, or SCOTUS would have rendered it invalid because our current SCOTUS serves Heritage first, Trump second, and the law in a distant third.


  • Determined by a preponderance of the evidence (this standard is essentially slightly more likely than not as opposed to the stronger standards of clear and convincing or beyond a reasonable doubt) to be civilly liable for sexual abuse (he was found not liable for rape because while the jury believed it had been proved more likely than not she was penetrated by him they didn’t believe it had been proved more likely than not that he used his penis to do so) for which he owes her damages, and then further damages for suing her for defamation for calling him a rapist (the judge there ruled that while he had not been found civilly liable for rape in the trial that the conduct he was found liable for met the colloquial definition of rape if not the NY penal code definition of such).

    It’s sort of like how OJ Simpson was never found guilty of murder, but he was found civilly liable for wrongful death for the same killings.


  • I don’t think anyone doubts it happened,

    You might want to look at right wing social media - there’s a whole lot of claims that it didn’t and that she based her story on Law and Order SVU S13 E11 from 2012. Given the circles she traveled in, it’s at least as likely that the SVU episode was inspired by her telling someone connected to the writers the story.

    but a criminal trial can be gruelling and ultimately lead to nothing.

    Also, odds are that it’s past statute of limitations, and those exist in large part because memories fade and evidence doesn’t last forever making crimes both more difficult to prove and more difficult to defend against over time.

    Her civil case would have already been past statute of limitations, but NY passed a law that created a temporary window where the statute of limitations for civil suits for sexual assault was retroactively revoked. It’s pretty obvious that the goal was specifically to allow Carroll to sue Trump, but it’s written a more broadly than that essentially as plausible deniability. I was actually surprised that NY law didn’t get stopped under the same grounds that retroactively expanding the statute of limitations has been shot down in the past - usually the line the courts will follow is that if you expand a statute of limitations, the new limit only applies to conduct that happens after the change occurs.


  • I was going to say as much. WV flipped hard in 2000. But it’s simple to understand - WV has always been pretty socially conservative, but was Dem because of the unions. They flipped because the Dems decided to turn on the biggest union industries in the state. The coal miner’s union isn’t a good base for your power when you’re overtly talking about actively working to destroy the coal mining industry. To be clear about how much WV cares about coal, it’s the state rock and there’s a coal miner on the state seal. The libertarian bent of a lot of GOP doesn’t hurt either, Montani Semper Liberi and all.


  • There is no profit generation in the industry.

    That’s because we’re in relatively early R&D and are trying to speedrun things in a way we generally don’t with most tech. To compare to tech you understand and are familiar with, where we’re at currently would be equivalent to like the internet in the late 80s/early 90s, except we’ve all seen how that went and everyone wants to be the Amazon, Microsoft or Google of the AI market when it moves from high R&D and little to no profit to becoming a mainstream part of everyday life.

    That transition point will probably be when bipedal robots that can do most tasks as well as a human while running a local model get cheap enough to be sold as industrial equipment. It’s why Asian labs (especially Chinese ones) keep showing off bipedal robots doing tasks that require either significant agility or fine motor skills involving predicting where body parts are (like doing needlepoint without being able to see it’s hands or doing dance routines).



  • Despite it basically being plot exposition because Shiloh needs to get hit by the plot exposition fairy to get things moving, Zydrate Anatomy is one of the better songs in it. Likewise Terrance Zdunich as the Graverobber is easily the best role in it, though attention needs to be called to Paris Hilton as Amber Sweet, not least because it never would have been released at all without her involvement (she was apparently so about this movie that she helped cover budget shortfalls to make it happen).



  • “hey, you know what? ten year olds are too young to marry. don’t be a fucking creep.”

    In their cultural context, that wouldn’t be that far outside the norm. The notion that there’s this magical line at 16-18 (in the US, depending on the state - possibly lower if the older partner is close in age or if they are married) is a 20th century invention. So, a guy from a text about 2000 years ago not expressing views on age and sexuality that were invented less than a hundred years ago is not exactly shocking.

    Before the industrial revolution, children were often treated like smaller adults. Childhood was much shorter than nowadays and adolescence basically wasn’t a thing culturally for the vast majority of history.


  • I’m also not a baptist.

    …and you’re especially not a Southern Baptist, the most fundamentalist mainstream flavor of the baptists. The Bible says a lot of things, and every sect picks and chooses favorites, in this case there’s a verse about not permitting a woman to teach or hold authority over a man that’s probably relevant.






  • I actually used to know a guy who pulled this sort of thing. Got 4 years, $100k fine and $428k in damages owed. Caused a huge number of problems for an energy company for a month because he got wind they were going to fire him.

    I prefer my version of it, which is knowing both who to contact at our largest customers. I’m under no contract that prevents me from showing a customer where and how the metaphorical bodies are buried were I to be terminated. I could do the other kind of stuff, trivially even, but that’s likely to end in prison…



  • Once the term became popularized, it fell out of use by the psychological community, as it was used more commonly as an insult than as a psychological term.

    Any term for something that is likely to be a target of scorn or mockery has this problem unless it’s so bloodless, detached and clinical that it is effectively only usable as medical jargon and barely has any meaning outside that context. George Carlin once did a bit on this.

    Related is how therapy language seems to increasingly be seeping into literally everything.