Important theory.

“If AI were already replacing labour at scale, productivity growth should be accelerating

There are headlines that suggest high productivity numbers, but tech capex now being 2% of GDP can be a big mask for those headlines. The way productivity is measured is sales divided by employment costs. Auto sector or insurance companies don’t have a genuine productivity boost if cars and insurance just cost more without employees making more of it.

Overpaying for GPUs, power, and datacenter construction are fairly low employment activities, GPUs being made overseas at extreme revenue per kg is something that would especially skew productivity numbers. Any growth in datacenter revenue is also something accomplished with few employees, and their customers are not necessarily boosting their revenues/employee.